Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.052524 0.060122 0.068499 0.078429 0.089894 0.102733 0.118224
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.041037 0.051390 0.063928 0.080280 0.101119 0.126890 0.161337
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.033811 0.044981 0.059392 0.079451 0.106812 0.143063 0.195120
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.030093 0.042059 0.058323 0.082209 0.116680 0.165058 0.238858
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.025618 0.037306 0.053894 0.079378 0.117947 0.174782 0.266075
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.022503 0.033986 0.050924 0.078017 0.120812 0.186717 0.297657
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.019544 0.030486 0.047189 0.074881 0.120332 0.193157 0.321051
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.018422 0.029654 0.047382 0.077829 0.129718 0.216180 0.374547
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.017426 0.028885 0.047544 0.080665 0.139144 0.240257 0.432994
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.016538 0.028177 0.047692 0.083429 0.148680 0.265538 0.496938
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.015200 0.026548 0.046088 0.082897 0.152191 0.280342 0.543141
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.014189 0.025383 0.045155 0.083432 0.157659 0.299288 0.599819
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.013124 0.024038 0.043811 0.083142 0.161697 0.316339 0.655920
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.012497 0.023442 0.043785 0.085382 0.171000 0.345010 0.740802
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.011546 0.022131 0.042269 0.084492 0.173815 0.360739 0.799871
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.011131 0.021816 0.042635 0.087435 0.184943 0.395286 0.906388
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.010115 0.020204 0.040269 0.084414 0.182871 0.400890 0.946316
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.009362 0.019054 0.038723 0.082962 0.184055 0.413831 1.005692
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.008504 0.017606 0.036425 0.079616 0.180546 0.415542 1.037421
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.008302 0.017527 0.037007 0.082761 0.192458 0.455026 1.171852
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.008097 0.017420 0.037514 0.085787 0.204448 0.496258 1.317633
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.007893 0.017296 0.037971 0.088738 0.216612 0.539520 1.476143
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.007440 0.016571 0.037005 0.088170 0.219881 0.560449 1.575273